Your browser has javascript turned off or blocked. This will lead to some parts of our website to not work properly or at all. Turn on javascript for best performance.

The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Kerstin Berntorp

Kerstin Berntorp

Adjunct professor

Kerstin Berntorp

Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus

Author

  • Claes Ignell
  • Magnus Ekelund
  • Eva Anderberg
  • Kerstin Berntorp

Summary, in English

AIMS: To identify predictors of diabetes development up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to develop a prediction model for individual use.

METHODS: Five years after GDM, a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 362 women, excluding women already diagnosed with diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later (n = 45). All but 21 women had results from follow-up at 1-2 years, while 84 women were lost from that point. Predictive variables were identified by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS: Five years after GDM, 28/362 women (8 %) were diagnosed with diabetes whereas 187/362 (52 %) had normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Of the latter, 139/187 (74 %) also had NGT at 1- to 2-year follow-up. In simple regression analysis, using NGT at 1-2 years and at 5 years as the reference, diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later was clearly associated with easily assessable clinical variables, such as BMI at 1- to 2-year follow-up, 2-h OGTT glucose concentration during pregnancy, and non-European origin (P < 0.0001). A prediction model based on these variables resulting in 86 % correct classifications, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95 % CI 0.86-0.95), was applied in a function-sheet line diagram illustrating the individual effect of weight on diabetes risk.

CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of BMI as a potentially modifiable risk factor for diabetes after GDM. Our proposed prediction model performed well, and should encourage validation in other populations in future studies.

Department/s

  • Genomics, Diabetes and Endocrinology
  • Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö
  • Obstetrics and Gynaecology (Lund)

Publishing year

2016

Language

English

Publication/Series

SpringerPlus

Volume

5

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Springer

Topic

  • Endocrinology and Diabetes

Status

Published

Research group

  • Genomics, Diabetes and Endocrinology

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2193-1801