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Åke Lernmark

Principal investigator

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Prediction of diabetes with body mass index, oral glucose tolerance test and islet cell autoantibodies in a regional population


  • O Rolandsson
  • E. Hägg
  • M. Nilsson
  • G Hallmans
  • Lucia Mincheva-Nilsson
  • Å Lernmark

Summary, in English

Objective. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that a combination of markers for Type 1 diabetes (glutamate decarboxylase and IA-2 autoantibodies) and for Type 2 diabetes [oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and body mass index (BMI)], would predict clinical diabetes in a regional population. Design. A population-based follow-up cohort study. Setting. Participants visited the primary health care centre in Lycksele, Sweden in 1988-92. Participants. A cohort of 2278 subjects (M/F 1149/1129) who were studied at follow-up in 1998. At base line there were 2314 subjects (M/F 1167/1147) who participated in the Västerbotten Intervention Program on their birthday when turning either 30, 40, 50 or 60 years of age. Main outcome measurements. A clinically diagnosed diabetes at follow-up when the medical records were reviewed for diagnosis of diabetes. At base line, the participants were subjected to a standard OGTT and their BMI determined along with the autoantibodies. Results. At follow-up, 42/2278 (1.8%, 95% CI 1.2-2.3) (M/F 23/19) had developed diabetes: 41 subjects were clinically classified with Type 2 and one with Type 1 diabetes. There was no significant relation between autoantibody levels at base line and diabetes at follow-up. Stepwise multiple logistic regression showed that the odds ratio for developing diabetes was 10.8 (95% CI 6.3-18.9) in subjects in the fourth quartile of BMI (BMI > 27) compared with 7.8 (95% CI 4.8-12.6) in the fourth quartile of 2-h plasma glucose (>7.5 mmol L-1) and 7.2 (95% CI 4.8-11.4) in the fourth quartile of the fasting plasma glucose (>5.6 mmol L-1). Conclusion. Islet cell autoantibodies did not predict diabetes at follow-up. BMI measured at base line was as effective as 2-h plasma glucose and fasting plasma glucose to predict diabetes in this adult population.

Publishing year







Journal of Internal Medicine





Document type

Journal article




  • Autoimmunity
  • Body mass index (BMI)
  • Epidemiology
  • Glutamate decarboxylase
  • Oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)
  • Sex
  • Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes




  • ISSN: 0954-6820